1 Mutual Fund Long Term Growth Portfolio | MutualFunds_Equity_Contra | Rebalancing Quarterly | 12 Months Subscription Plan

1 Mutual Fund Long Term Growth Portfolio | MutualFunds_Equity_Contra | Rebalancing Quarterly | 12 Months Subscription Plan

₹375.00 for 1 year

Telegram Bot Command for @ShubhaangBot : /mfeqct_1_15000_n_0

Click here: “Portfolio Research Report & Factsheet”.

Click here: “Instructions & Standard Disclosures”.

Portfolio Parameters

Parameter Value
Scripts Group Title MutualFunds_Equity_Contra
Portfolio Size 1 Mutual Fund {1 Mutual Fund and 0 Equities or ETFs}
ETFs Composition Percentage Equities and ETFs Composition is 0%
Portfolio Risk Future Risk may Exceed 35%
Minimum Annual Investment Capital ₹ 15,000
Optimal Investment Tenure 7 or more years.
Rebalancing Frequency Rebalancing Quarterly
Subscription Tenure 12 Months Subscription Plan
Backtest – Sharpe Ratio Hist. Sharpe Ratio above 0.8
Backtest – Annualised Returns Hist. Annualised Returns Under 20%
Backtest – Annualised Risk Hist. Annualised Risk Exceeding 15%
Backtest – Max. Drawdown Hist. Max. Drawdown Exceeding 10%
Backtest – Max. Recovery Time Hist. Max. Recovery Time Exceeding 5 Quarters
Simulation – Lumpsum Capital Growth Multiple ** More than 4.7 times in 20 yrs with 99.9% probability

Simulation Results :- Lumpsum Capital Growth Multiples over Future Years at varying Probability Levels

Probability Levels (%) 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years 3 Years 1 Year
99.9% Probability ** 4.70 2.50 1.39 0.86 0.76 0.74
99% Probability 7.86 3.88 2.00 1.11 0.92 0.83
98% Probability 9.42 4.55 2.28 1.22 0.99 0.87
95% Probability 12.37 5.77 2.77 1.40 1.10 0.92
90% Probability 15.81 7.13 3.29 1.58 1.21 0.98
80% Probability 21.44 9.27 4.07 1.84 1.36 1.04
75% Probability 24.19 10.28 4.42 1.95 1.43 1.07
50% Probability 47.14 18.00 6.87 2.62 1.78 1.21

Refer to the “Backtests & Simulations” tab for further details on their operational settings.

Investment Objective:

  • To generate significant capital appreciation by investing in equity contra mutual funds that identify and leverage undervalued stocks.

Investment Rationale:

  1. Opportunity in Undervalued Stocks: Equity contra funds focus on investing in stocks that are perceived to be undervalued or out of favor in the market. By targeting these overlooked companies, investors may benefit from significant price appreciation when these stocks eventually rebound, potentially leading to higher returns.
  2. Long-term Capital Growth: Contra funds typically have a long-term investment horizon, allowing them to ride out market cycles and capitalize on volatility. By holding onto undervalued stocks until their true potential is recognized, these funds aim for substantial capital growth over time, making them suitable for long-term investors.
  3. Expert Fund Management: Equity contra funds are managed by experienced professionals who conduct in-depth analysis and research to identify undervalued opportunities. Investors can benefit from the expertise and strategic decision-making of these fund managers, who aim to construct a portfolio with a high potential for future appreciation while navigating market challenges.

Investment Methodology:

  1. Universe Definition: The investment universe comprises all open-ended equity-based mutual funds, providing a comprehensive range of options for portfolio construction.
  2. Systematic Identification: Proprietary algorithms and advanced quantitative models are employed to rigorously identify mutual funds with the highest potential for superior returns. This assessment is grounded in historical performance and various fund characteristics.
  3. Data-Driven Framework: The models, extensively validated across multiple fund types and time horizons, integrate customized proprietary indicators such as momentum, volatility, and trend analysis. This ensures that the portfolio construction process is strictly based on objective data and high-quality signals, devoid of biases, prejudices, or emotional influences.
  4. Optimisation of Fund Selection: The selection of mutual funds, along with their respective weightings within the mutual fund portfolio, is optimized based on essential factors, including target portfolio size, expense ratio, minimum investment requirements, exit load, assets under management (AUM), and available investment capital.

Backtests and Simulation Results:

  1. Backtest models are constructed using a limited set of assumptions about market conditions and portfolio characteristics; therefore, backtest results should not be interpreted as indicative of actual past performance in real-world conditions.
  2. Backtest results and Simulation results should never be used as a basis for comparing the actual performance of other intermediaries.
  3. Backtest and simulation outputs are provided solely as factual data to support comparative assessment of my subscription plans. They highlight the model’s potential in relation to the portfolio’s investment rationale and parameters under the stated investment methodology.
  4. Simulation results are derived from 10,00,000 trials and represent potential future scenarios based on normalised inputs (average returns and return volatility) obtained from backtesting.
  5. Users are strongly advised to exercise extreme caution when using this information. 
  6. These back-test results and simulation have not been verified by PaRRVA (Past Risk and Return Verification Agency) or any other SEBI-recognized agency.
  7. The impact of periodic portfolio rebalancing and transaction costs has been factored into these back-test results.
  8. "Backtesting and simulation results do not serve as indicators of future performance or guarantees of returns and they should not be interpreted as an endorsement or advertisement."

Simulation Assumptions:

  1. Monthly Portfolio Returns are assumed to follow a normal distribution over a 20-year horizon, with mean returns and volatility presumed to mirror historically observed levels.
  2. Portfolios are rebalanced once monthly.
  3. Portfolio risk level and Sharpe ratio are assumed to remain unchanged over the 20-year period.
  4. Other than the initial lump sum investment, no additional contributions or withdrawals are made over the 20 years period.
  5. Portfolio rebalancing is assumed to be unconstrained by liquidity over the 20‑year period: required quantities of each security can be bought or sold at competitive prices on every rebalancing, and transaction volumes are assumed to have a negligible impact on market prices.
  6. Earnings from dividends are ignored.
  7. Simulation results are not adjusted for inflation rates.
  8. Effects of taxes on the capital appreciation (Capital Gains Tax & Taxes on Dividends) are not accounted.

Simulation Settings:

  1. Transactional costs are included in the Sharpe ratio calculations.
  2. Risk free rate is assumed to be 6.5% p.a.
  3. Each simulation value is resulted from 10,00,000 simulation trials using the Monte Carlo method.
  4. Simulation results are derived for probability levels (confidence levels) of 99.9%, 99%, 98%, 95%, 90%, 80%, 75%, and 50%.
  5. Simulation values do not predict or reflect future market conditions; they represent only possible future outcomes.
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